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 Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter of 2011, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

 By this time one would hope we'd be seeing GDP growth of well in excess of 3%. It is hard to see how this kind of limited growth can generate the jobs necessary to make a serious dent in the unemployment rate. 

 How does this affect Maui real estate? Contact us for details. 

"What are important are sales and inventory, and those are pointing in the right direction," said Christopher Thornberg, a principal at Beacon Economics who was one of the early callers of the housing crash. "I would say that by the end of the year, they should translate into better prices."

Thornberg added, "The recovery is here."

and

As more foreclosed homes in hard-hit neighborhoods are filled with renters, an increasing number of everyday buyers will grow interested in owning, said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a New York housing research firm.

"This is not a robust recovery, but I feel confident that we are not sitting here lingering," said Zelman, who predicts that home prices will end the year up about 1%. "There really is more meat to the bone."

What is particularly notable about these people is they were prominent housing bears for quite a while.

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“The crash is over”, Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester,Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Home sales — both new and existing — and housing starts are now off the bottom.”

Of course not everyone agrees. The article is worth the read.

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Data through February 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/CaseShiller  Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed annual declines of 3.6% and 3.5% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively. This is an improvement over the annual rates posted for the month of January, -4.1% and -3.9%, respectively

In other words the rate of decline has slowed. 

Looking at key Maui feeder markets we discover the following year over year comparisons

Dallas                      -1%

Denver                     +.5%

Los Angeles             -5.2%

Phoenix                   +3.3%

Portland                   -3.0%

San Diego                -3.9%

San Fransisco          -4.1%

Seattle                     -2.9%

While this news looks a bit depressing, combine this with the inventory numbers included in prior posts and we find a market that is cleaning itself up.

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A storm delivering needed rain to the Atlantic Seaboard will have many faces ranging from urban flooding, to strong winds, unusual cold, heavy snow and power outages into Monday.

A strengthening storm is rolling up the Atlantic Coast with drenching rain.

The good news? We are not there!

A year ago, according to researchers at the National Association of Realtors, one out of 10 members surveyed in a monthly poll complained about low-ball offers on houses listed for sale. In the latest survey ? conducted in March among 4,500 agents and brokers across the country but not yet released ? there were hardly any. Instead, the focus of volunteered comments has shifted to declining inventory levels ? fewer houses available to sell ? and multiple offers on well-priced listings.A low-ball offer typically involves a contract submitted to a seller where the price proposed by the purchaser is 25 percent or more below list.

This is certainly becoming more and more true of Maui real estate. It is even more true of the resort areas like Wailea and Kapalua. Owners in these areas tend to have great financial staying power and are immune to lowball offers. Given today's inventory levels? Lowball offers are unlikely to be productive.?

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